According to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research in Germany, there is more than an even chance of a 3 degrees C rise in temperature by the end of this century, based on the lightweight 'promises' made after Copenhagen. More here.
I can see it happening too. No major nation or group seems to have the backbone to go for anything bold. This, despite the fact that the worldwide recession has reduced emissions, making it easier to hit current targets. The EU, for example, is set to easily make it's target due to the recession and, for reasons I won't bore you with here, has gained a head-start when it comes to set it's next target for 2012 onward. Yet it seems likely they'll be anything but aggressive.
I do hope I'm wrong here: The world needs leadership from the EU. A demonstration of how to cut emissions and remain competitive. I'm sure, if they take the lead, others will follow. Whether the U.S., China, and India will be inspired too join them is another matter.
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