Friday, 3 September 2010

Who are the IPCC?

The Background
Earlier this year, a 'scandal' broke out over the inaccurate claim made by an influential body called the IPCC that, due to global warming, the Himalayan glaciers could be gone by 2035. Fast-forward to August 29th and a review committee set-up by the UN in the wake of that scandal, issues a report that recommends many reforms for the IPCC but also praises them for their work generally.

So who are the IPCC?
IPCC stands for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It was set-up by the UN in 1988 to look at the risks of climate change and publish reports detailing the potential impacts, options for adaptation and/or ways to lessen the impact. It doesn't actually do any research itself but has the know-how to gather together anything relevant from the research going on around the world.

The reports are used by many governments to form their policies towards climate change like planning flood defences and setting carbon emission targets.

The mistake
The last major report was published in 2007 and was 3000 pages long with an 'executive summary' for people who haven't the time to read the main report. It was this main report that contained the gaff about those glaciers, but this was based on a comment made by a single scientist in a magazine interview back in 1999! The IPCC's own rules should have ensured that the comment was checked before inclusion but it slipped through. The prediction was not only wrong, it was badly wrong: It has been calculated that it would actually take at least 300 years before the glaciers disappeared, not 30 or so.

An embarassing mistake for sure. Particularly from such an influential organisation.

The Politics
Climate change deniers hate that influence and want the IPCC disbanded. They were no doubt hoping that this mistake would be their downfall. Instead, they have to be content with the review group's list of criticisms.

In truth, this review will probably do the IPCC a lot of good: In today's new reality, they and their work need to be above reproach. They have now been presented with the framework to do just that. Put it in place and they're likely to come out stronger and even more influential.

That is just what the World needs for the challenging times ahead.

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