Durban Climate Deal: What's In It For Us?

As you may have heard, the Durban climate conference actually finished with a last minute deal. But what does it actually mean to you, me and, more importantly our kids?

Let's start with the headline details:

• The deal was historic because, for the first time, it was agreed by all countries. In the past, 'developing' countries have been exempt whilst others have simply not signed up (e.g. the USA).

• The deal says talks will start early next year with the aim of producing a legally binding agreement by 2015 that will come into force by 2020.

• Significant progress was also made on separate areas aimed at: providing financial support to developing countries effected by climate change; and protecting and developing forests.

What instantly struck me about all this were those dates. Basically there's little prospect of a final agreement before 2015, and no prospect of any serious cuts before 2020! This despite the fact that the science says that carbon emissions have to peak by 2020 (at the latest) and fall steeply thereafter if we are to keep the global rise in temperature to below 2 degrees C.

2 degrees isn't just some nice-to-have number that's been plucked from nowhere. It's a limit beyond which we are likely to run into all sorts of tipping points that could take the climate beyond our control. It's also what the world's governments have agreed to.

If the eventual deal for 2020 amounts to nothing more than locking in what countries have already commited to, we're looking at around a 4.5 degree rise by 2100. That would be disastrous.

We can still hope that the new alliance between the EU and many developing nations will grow in it's influence and lead negotiations towards a better result, but you can bet that a handful of countries (you know who they are) will be doing everything they can to water it down.