Are Electric Cars The Future?

Mitsubishi i

The other day I was watching an episode of Top Gear (A popular motoring programme hosted by 3 middle aged men who dick about whilst doing the occasional car review). One of the items was a pretty devastating assessment of electric cars.

Now, as you might guess, I've been fairly positive about electric cars in this blog (See here, here, and here) but even I had to admit after watching this, they would be a poor choice of vehicle to buy.



The headline criticisms were:

• They are considerably more expensive than a similar sized petrol engine car (Around double the price).
• Their range is poor on a full charge (100 miles or less for most), which would mean frequent 're-fuelling' stops on a long journey.
• Re-charging takes several hours (up to 13 in the review). So no quick stops like with a standard car.
• There are very few charging points around at present, so drivers risk being stranded if they don't plan their journeys carefully.
• The batteries have a short life (around 5 years according to the review) and will be even shorter if 'fast charge' outlets (which greatly reduce the charge time) are used. The cost for a replacement? In the thousands - £7000 was quoted on Top Gear.

Nissan Leaf

Of course, you could say the test was unfair as it consisted of a lengthy journey in vehicles that are clearly better suited to local commutes (You wouldn't test a family hatchback by taking it off-road, would you?). You could also say that electric vehicles (EVs) are still new technology, so you'd expect them to be expensive and have a few issues.

[Note: Top Gear got it wrong about the battery life. Nissan say that the batteries should only have lost between 20 to 30% off the full charge after 10 years. If it did fail at around 5 years it would fall under the warranty and be replaced. The battery actually consists of 48 modules, each costing about £400 to replace. Typically you'd replace the modules as they fail not the whole thing in one go. More here]

Still, as EVs stand, there's not much to recommend them. Even the zero emissions argument is a bit dodgy when you consider that the electric they use has probably been generated using mainly fossil fuels (unless you live somewhere like France where it's mostly nuclear).

This is probably why Nissan have only sold 50,000 Leafs worldwide in nearly 2 years.

So are EVs doomed to failure? Not according to this item written by the President of the Rochester Institute of Technology. Some highlights:

• EVs are inherently much more efficient than even the best vehicle based round an internal combustion engine [ICE].  EVs manage 120 miles on the energy equivalent of a gallon of petrol.
• Even when run on electric from grids that use a lot of fossil fuels, their efficiency means they still have a smaller carbon footprint than an ICE vehicle.
• Range isn't that big a deal. Most people's daily mileage is less than half the actual range of an EV. Some EVs, like the Chevy Volt and Prius Plug-in have a back-up petrol energy. Incidentally, EVs will eventually have ranges up to 10 times the current ones (Tesla already have a car that has a range of 300 miles).
• Next generation vehicles, like fuel cell based ones, will need an electric drivetrain to propel them. So they'd be EVs anyway. Only the fuel source will have changed.

Basically, the biggest problems with EVs will be worked out in the near future. Battery technology will improve to the point where they will last as long as the car, be far cheaper, and will give EVs a range most ICE vehicles will envy; Charging points will be everywhere and will fast charge without shortening the battery's life; and the price of the EVs will tumble (The Nissan Leaf is already down to around £20,000 with government grants).

I still think it's optimistic to expect EVs to make up 50% of new car sales by 2020 as some expect but there's potential for a sizeable figure if things go their way. Petrol prices could be a game changer.