What Will 2 Degrees Of Warming Mean For Us?

The World Resources Institute has created this handy 'infographic' to summarise 4 potential future scenarios from the IPCC concerning climate change.

They range from the likely best case scenario (+2 degrees C by 2100) to the worst case scenario of +4.8 C.

The best case will only happen if a strong global agreement on cutting carbon emissions is made next year, leading to emissions peaking by 2020 and falling steeply thereafter. A big ask.

But even this would leave us with an uncomfortable future. Here are some headlines:

• 24% more of the population will have reduced groundwater resources by the 2080's.
• 4 times as many people will be exposed each year to once in a century flooding by the 2080's.
• 35% of the world's coral reefs will suffer long term damage in the next few decades.
• Dairy production in Australia will decline by 2030.

This, of course, does not take into account any 'tipping points' which may be reached on the way to +2 C which may throw us into an even warmer world.

The worst case scenario (+4.8C), which will basically come about with business as usual, doesn't even bare thinking about: 

• 38% more of the population will have reduced groundwater resources by the 2080's.
• 12 times as many people will be exposed each year to once in a century flooding by the 2080's.
• 59% of the world's coral reefs will suffer long term damage in the next few decades.
• Heat stress for workers will reduce global productivity by over 20% by 2100.
• Ranges of many plants and animals will be reduced by > 50% by the 2080s. Widespread extinctions are expected.
• Impacts on agricultural production and food security will be so great that they cannot be adapted to.
• Soybean production in Brazil will drop by 44% by 2050. Growing coffee will probably not be possible in some parts of Brazil by 2100.

Any temperature rise more than 2 C is pretty much certain to trigger tipping points, so 4.8C is a minimum. If you want to get an idea of just how bad things could get at these higher temperatures try reading Six Degrees by Mark Lynas.

So, if anyone tells you we don't need to deal with climate change, tell them they're talking garbage.

Indicators Of Climate Change

Rising global temperatures (an average of +0.9C since pre-industrial times) aren't the only clue to on-going climate change.

Here's a run-down of some of the others:

• As the atmosphere warms decade by decade, so do the oceans, at a slower rate, but it's still rising. 90% of the heat from global warming is actually being absorbed by the seas.
• Glaciers and icesheets all over the world are shrinking at an increasing rate. 
• Average Spring snow cover in the northern hemisphere has decreased by 1.6% a decade since the late sixties.
• Average sea-levels have risen by more than 18cm over the last century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm up, plus glacier and icesheet loss.
• Permafrost is shrinking worldwide, releasing methane, a potent 'greenhouse gas' into the atmosphere.
• In the US (and the UK) Spring is coming earlier. Sounds nice for us, but not so good for plants and animals which are struggling to adapt.

All this with less than a 1 degree C rise in temperature. Makes you think.

More detail here.

Food: What A Waste.

The latest projections are that the world's population will be around 9.2 billion by 2050. The U.N. estimates that, as a result, food production will have to double by the middle of the century.

It's a tall order.

One big problem is the amount of food we waste: One third of all food is wasted or around $750 billion a year (See here).


Food is wasted at all stages from the field to our forks and in all countries, rich or poor:

• During harvesting (e.g. Supermarkets rejecting whole crops because they aren't the right size, colour or shape).
• Storage (a particular problem in poor countries where food rots before it gets to the customer).
• Processing and packaging.
• Distribution (e.g. Choosy customers not buying blemished veg)
• Consumption (Including people throwing out food that passes it's Sell-by date even though it hasn't reached it's Use By date, which is what we should really be following).

The fault lies with everyone along the line but because food is relatively cheap, we don't bother putting it right.

Obviously, as the population grows, and food becomes more expensive as a result (demand vs. supply), people may start to change their behaviour.

Long before that point is reached though, the poor will struggle to afford it. Some would say that is already beginning to happen. In effect, the demand from the 'rich' (that's you and me) is limiting the accessibilty of food for the poor.
Here's another bunch of statistics (not necessarily directly related ...yet) from the World Health Organisation (WHO): World obesity has doubled since 1980; At least 1.2 billion adults are overweight and 500 million of these are obese (See here).

Meanwhile, approximately 870 million people are undernourished (See here).

That's wrong on so many levels.

We need to stop wasting food now, not when it starts hitting our pockets. In the long run it'll save us money, as well as help the poor, reduce our carbon foortprint and cut the amount of landfill.

The way we live at the moment cannot be sustained for much longer. We need to think differently, to live differently, if our kids are to have anywhere near the quality of life we have. And not being so wasteful is as good a start as any.