What Will 2 Degrees Of Warming Mean For Us?

The World Resources Institute has created this handy 'infographic' to summarise 4 potential future scenarios from the IPCC concerning climate change.

They range from the likely best case scenario (+2 degrees C by 2100) to the worst case scenario of +4.8 C.

The best case will only happen if a strong global agreement on cutting carbon emissions is made next year, leading to emissions peaking by 2020 and falling steeply thereafter. A big ask.

But even this would leave us with an uncomfortable future. Here are some headlines:

• 24% more of the population will have reduced groundwater resources by the 2080's.
• 4 times as many people will be exposed each year to once in a century flooding by the 2080's.
• 35% of the world's coral reefs will suffer long term damage in the next few decades.
• Dairy production in Australia will decline by 2030.

This, of course, does not take into account any 'tipping points' which may be reached on the way to +2 C which may throw us into an even warmer world.

The worst case scenario (+4.8C), which will basically come about with business as usual, doesn't even bare thinking about: 

• 38% more of the population will have reduced groundwater resources by the 2080's.
• 12 times as many people will be exposed each year to once in a century flooding by the 2080's.
• 59% of the world's coral reefs will suffer long term damage in the next few decades.
• Heat stress for workers will reduce global productivity by over 20% by 2100.
• Ranges of many plants and animals will be reduced by > 50% by the 2080s. Widespread extinctions are expected.
• Impacts on agricultural production and food security will be so great that they cannot be adapted to.
• Soybean production in Brazil will drop by 44% by 2050. Growing coffee will probably not be possible in some parts of Brazil by 2100.

Any temperature rise more than 2 C is pretty much certain to trigger tipping points, so 4.8C is a minimum. If you want to get an idea of just how bad things could get at these higher temperatures try reading Six Degrees by Mark Lynas.

So, if anyone tells you we don't need to deal with climate change, tell them they're talking garbage.