Paris Climate Summit: Time to be Optimistic?

The Paris Climate Conference is due to conclude tomorrow (Friday 11th Dec 2015) amid hopes that 2 weeks of negotiation will produce an ambitious deal.

But let's have a look at some of the highlights of the talks:

• Arnie suggests we have 1 or 2 meat free days a week: The former governor of California, Arnold Swarzenegger put this forward as a serious suggestion during the summit. Many people would label him as a whacko for saying this but he's got a point. Worldwide production of meat is responsible for at least 20% of carbon emissions, so cutting down on our meat intake like this would have a big impact. And with a growing world population likely to drive up the price of meat (Much more than it has already), meat may become an expensive treat for most of us anyway. So you might need to get used to the idea.
• India digs it's heals in: India has a plan to raise millions of it's people out of poverty by going down a similar industrialisation route as China. To do that, it will have to embark on a massive program of building coal-fired power stations (In the hundreds). So, while the rest of the world may be cutting their emissions, India will be growing theirs on scale similar to what China has been doing. Why are they using coal? Because it's cheap and there's lots of it. India have been taking a very hard-line on this, and refuse to be lectured to by developed countries who've used the same trick to build thriving economies themselves. However, they suddenly softened their approach last week, saying they were prepared to replace some coal stations with solar...providing other countries stump up the cash.
• 1.5C instead of 2C?: All this time we've been talking about keeping the rise in global temperatures to under 2C. 'Only' island states were arguing for keeping it under 1.5C. But now 1.5C is gaining traction at the summit amongst more and more delegates. In fact....
• The 'High Ambition Coalition' grows and grows: In possibly the most encouraging development at the conference, well over a hundred nations have joined together (including the African countries, the EU, other europeans, and now the US) with the aim of making the outcome as ambitious as possible: Recognition of the 1.5C target, a well-defined pathway towards a low carbon future, 5 yearly reviews, and a strong package of support for developing countries.

Time to be optimistic? Let's wait for the outcome of the summit first.

DECC forecasts less Renewables and more Gas for UK

The UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), has reduced it's forecast for the amount of renewables to be added to the UK energy mix over the next couple of decades, whilst raising it's forecast for energy coming from natural gas in the same period (See here for more).

Looks like the writing's on the wall guys: Don't look to the UK government for leadership in the fight against climate change anymore.

Morocco to Open Solar Thermal Plant Next Month

Around 3 years ago, I reported about the possibility of a european super-grid which would import energy from as far afield as Africa and Iceland.

That grid has come a step closer with the opening, next month (December 2015) of a solar thermal plant in Morocco which aims to provide electric to a million of it's citizens. This is just the first step in an ambitious plan to exploit the country's natural resources: Winds off the Atlantic and solar energy in Morocco's part of the Sahara.

The plant will eventually provide electric for 20 hours of the day (thanks to energy storage) and Morocco as a whole will have enough excess electric to start supplying Europe.

More here.

UK Government Axes £1bn Grant for Carbon Capture

One of the key elements to a lower carbon future will be the development of a working, affordable, and efficient form of carbon capture and storage (CCS).

The UK government was offering a £1bn grant for the winning bidders in a competition to develop such a system here in Britain. Several companies, including Shell and SSE, have been working on bids for years. Now the government have pulled the rug out from under them.

Wow. How short sighted can you get?

More here.

Climate Change: Does UK Government Get It?

At the end of this month, all nations will be meeting in Paris to sort out a climate change agreement.

The signs are good: The U.S. and China seem fully committed; Australia and Canada now have themselves prime ministers who aren't climate deniers; and many nations are putting in some bold promises.

However, the UK government seems to be going backwards. They may say they're fully committed to fighting climate change but they seem hell-bent on rolling back just about any scheme that helps cut carbon. Here are some examples of what they've done or plan to do:

• Blocking onshore wind energy.
• Blocking solar in the countryside
• Cutting industrial solar subsidy
• Cutting biogas subsidy
• Cutting biomass subsidy
• Cutting domestic solar subsidy
• Ending Green Deal (Low interest loans to home owners who want to be more energy efficient)
• Ending the Green Deal's far more successful predecessor (Included subsidies for roof insulation)
• Scrap requirement that all new homes be zero carbon.
• Cut zero carbon offices
• Put carbon tax on renewables!
• Tax breaks for the oil and gas industry 
• Increase the subsidy for diesel generators
• Freeze fuel duty escalator (to make driving progressively more expensive, encouraging drivers to move away from gas guzzlers).
• Increasing tax on small cars
• Cut support for community energy schemes
• Sell off the Green Investment Bank

Does all this strike you as the program of a government "fully committed to fighting climate change"? The most charitable interpretation is that they have a somewhat short-sighted, cost cutting agenda which trumps all other considerations.

Let's hope that the coming climate deal encourages our useless government to get it's priorities straight: We need to start investing in the future.

After A Climate Deal Part 2 - How Will It Effect Us?

In part 1 of this mini-series, I speculated about whether a climate deal would fall apart before it had any effect. This time round, I assume the deal goes ahead as planned, taking a look at the effects the deal might have on our lives.

• Energy efficiency: Amongst the most cost effective ways of cutting carbon emissions is by improving energy efficiency. New buildings will be better insulated, use less energy and produce their own energy. Old buildings will be retrofitted with similar effects. As a result, home owners and businesses will have greatly reduced fuel bills. And buildings are only the beginning - Energy efficiencies can be found with vehicles, laptops, domestic appliances, and just about anything else that uses energy. All these things will save us money.
• Transport:  It seems unlikely that gas-guzzlers like 4x4's, SUV's, sports cars and the like will be targeted, as that would have little impact on the overall carbon footprint. Instead, expect a push for new vehicles to be increasingly cleaner and incentives to move over to them. I don't expect electric and hydrogen vehicles to be out-selling petrol and diesel ones any time soon due to their relative costs. Same goes for hybrids. Some governments may try to tax petrol/diesel off the road but, as the UK discovered, that's politically dangerous. Public transport will be improved where feasible but only in cities. Shipping and aviation will fast become significant contributors to global emissions. At the moment, they seem to be excluded from U.N. climate negotiations. I doubt they'll escape for long.
• Coal-fired power stations will have to be quickly phased out (10 to 15 years) or have carbon capture installed. Expect a growth of hydro, tidal, wave, nuclear, natural gas, and biomass energy schemes to replace them. Also expect the air to get a lot less polluted as coal is phased out.
• Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has struggled to get off the ground, but it may be a only way of keeping coal fired stations in the mix (whilst other forms of energy catch up). Many have tried to make it happen (The UK and Norway amongst them) to no avail. When someone does eventually get a cost effective method going, it will be a game changer for the climate and worth billions.
• Carbon pricing: This, and carbon trading, was once seen as the answer to climate change - Let the market sort it out by making fossil fuels more expensive and therefore renewables more competitive. However, carbon pricing seems to have disappeared from the U.N. climate change agenda. Not sure why. Possibly because carbon trading has thus far proven to be a difficult tool to get right (Ask the E.U. who have made a right mess of it). Maybe because carbon pricing is seen, quite wrongly, as a stealth tax.
• Energy storage: Solar and wind are intermittent energy sources, unlike say, coal or nuclear which are constant. However, if you store spare renewable energy in times of low demand and use it during times of high demand, it becomes more like a constant source. A lot of progress has been made in energy storage lately, and I expect it to only improve. Once they get this going, then renewables will replace fossil fuels even quicker.
• Super-grids: Meeting energy demand whatever the conditions even during peaks in demand is essential to modern day society. By connecting up very large areas (like the whole of Europe) in one supergrid, it's easier to do this. Watch out for countries getting increasingly inter-connected.
• Reforestation: Expect a lot of  forests to be re-planted. They take carbon from the atmosphere, clean water supplies, prevent soil erosion, and protect coastlines. What's not to like?
• In it together: A strong, worldwide climate deal could prove to be a rallying call to millions around the planet to get behind the deal and make it happen for the sake of future generations. Imagine that: Bringing the peoples of the world together for a common purpose.
• A new dawn: Hopefully any deal made in Paris will be ambitious enough that we will have to get very clever to meet our targets. It could spark the dawn of a new age of science, bringing forward technology we haven't even thought of yet. It could prove the catalyst for a future we can only dream of.

A strong climate deal will have a transformative effect on the way energy is delivered and used. We will therefore do things very differently in the future, both as individuals and as a society. However, I suspect we'll see this as a good thing.

Economic Growth Whilst Preventing Dangerous Climate Change

Some climate sceptics would have us believe that saving the planet from climate change would cost too much. They therefore argue for business-as-usual and adapting to whatever comes our way (As if that were possible!).

A better alternative is where we head off climate change whilst continuing global economic growth. But how is that possible? Well, this item shows what may be possible with better city planning, improved energy efficiency, and more intelligent land use.

Solar Could Provide 25% of World's Electric by 2050

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says solar power could provide a quarter of our electricity demand by 2050. This would save around 6 gigatonnes of carbon per year.

Around 16% of the electric would come from solar PV (Solar panels) and 11% from solar thermal.

More detail here.

World Can Prosper While Tackling Climate Change

According to a calculator created for the UK government, it would be possible for the world's population to have a European lifestyle whilst preventing the global temperature rising any more than 2 degrees C.

You can read more about how this can be achieved here. Whilst the calculator is here.

So, if we can fight climate change whilst continuing economic growth, where's the problem? Answer: There isn't one. Let's get on with saving the planet for our kids.

Bank of England Boss Sees Climate Change Threat

This week, Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, warned a gathering of leading insurers that climate change poses a huge threat to future global stability. He is concerned that we may not do enough in the present to avoid profound problems in the future. As he said: "The far-sighted amongst you are anticipating broader global impacts on property, migration and political stability, as well as food and water security." but the current generation hs little incentive to fix the problem. "In other words, once climate change becomes a defining issue for financial stability, it may already be too late."

As ever, Carney, provides us with words of wisdom. His words are largely economically motivated but he reaches the same conclusion as the most ardent tree hugger: We need act now, and we need to act decisively.

More here.

Vehicle Emissions Scandal: Is It Happening In The EU too?

Hard on the heels of news that Volkswagen have been rigging U.S. emissions tests on it's diesels, there is now growing evidence that various manufacturers are doing similar things with E.U. tests. See here for the details.

The VW Emissions Scandal: No Surprise

Yesterday the news broke that Volkwagen have been rigging it's U.S. emissions tests. Basically VW diesel vehicles have been setup to detect when they're being tested and then ensure the tests see considerably less emissions than there actually are. In effect, the car appears cleaner than it actually is (See here for more).

This will cost VW billions in fines and lawsuits in America alone, not to mention ruin it's reputation. And this is only the beginning: Europe, South Korea and Australia are just the first to start investigations of their own.

What were VW thinking? Surely they knew this could happen?

But are they the only car company doing this? I suspect not. As I reported at the end of this post way back in early 2013, many car manufacturers were/are suspected of rigging EU tests anyway by tailoring their test vehicles to give the very best result.

So, no, the VW scandal doesn't surprise me. The big surprise is that it took this long for a manufacturer to be exposed.

Six months to go...

The build up to the Paris Climate Conference in December continues:

• 'Green' groups are trying to wind up the pressure on politicians with mass marches/demos/events (There's one in London on June 17th). 
• Major corporations whose businesses depend on the outcome of the conference - one way or the other - are lobbying governments. 
• Nations around the world are making announcements about the emissions cuts they're planning.
• G7 leaders are issuing promising joint statements about climate change.
• And scientists continue to roll out papers and studies that underline the need for action on climate change.

I get the sense that, finally, something significant will happen by the end of this year. Politicians seem to get it - That the decision they make, or don't make, this time round, will determine the future of mankind on this planet. We cannot afford another Copenhagen, we have to act now or any action we do take will be too late.

Why? Because the science tells us that's the case. If the politicians accept that climate change needs to be dealt with, then they've also got to accept the timescales that need to be followed: Carbon emissions must peak around 2020 and fall rapidly after that if we are to have a chance of keeping climate change below 2 degrees C (Any higher would be disastrous).

I am cautiously optimistic that they'll get it right in Paris. And what with the news that China's emissions may peak as early as 2025 now, there is at least some hope that carbon can be cut fast enough to give future generations a chance.

After A Climate Deal: Part 1 - Will It Hold Together?

This is the first part of what I hope will be mini-series speculating about what might happen after a global climate deal in Paris come December 2015.

The series is, of course, based on the rather big assumption that there will be a deal. This is by no means certain.

First off, there are a number of countries taking part in the negotiations who want to limit it or scupper it altogether. Middle East nations, Russia, Canada, and Australia to name a few.

Then there are the major differences of opinion between developed and developing countries over issues like who cuts emissions most, and how much rich nations will pay the poorer ones for adapting to climate change (Reparations by any other name). It's possible that the developing nations will veto any deal they see as unfair or doesn't help them out enough.

But.....assuming they do get through all that AND there's a strong deal at the end of it, will it actually hold together?

As I see it, there are a number of challenges to overcome:

• The final deal is unlikely to be legally binding. So what's to stop countries not bothering, or not doing enough? Only national pride (i.e. Honouring an agreement) and that's only good until the party in opposition when the government signed the agreement, get into power e.g. Look at the Kyoto agreement: Bill Clinton's signature had barely dried before his successor, George W. Bush, tore it up. Even if the agreement were legally binding, Canada have shown how much that's worth. They dropped out of Kyoto in the nick of time to avoid heavy fines because their emissions were actually increasing.
• The U.S. Republican party are almost certain to tear down anything and everything that has even the faintest whiff of 'green' about it the next time they get in power. That includes any Climate Deal, the Environmental Protection Agency (Obama's only tool for making cuts at the moment), and the Clean Power Plan. They are idealogically opposed to emissions cuts regardless of any economic, environmental, or social benefits. If the Republicans do back out of the agreement, then it is likely the whole deal will unravel.
• What happens the next time a worldwide recession happens? Will countries axe funding for emissions cuts? Seems likely doesn't it?

Notice the common link in all those challenges? Politicans. Signed deals, like promises, mean nothing to them.

So, what I'm hoping for is that a strong climate deal inspires so many millions of ordinary people around the World, that the politicians don't dare renege on it. After all, the deal will be nothing less than a rallying call for everybody on the planet, not just governments, to unite against the common threat of climate change.

We can all be part of the solution.