After A Climate Deal: Part 1 - Will It Hold Together?

This is the first part of what I hope will be mini-series speculating about what might happen after a global climate deal in Paris come December 2015.

The series is, of course, based on the rather big assumption that there will be a deal. This is by no means certain.

First off, there are a number of countries taking part in the negotiations who want to limit it or scupper it altogether. Middle East nations, Russia, Canada, and Australia to name a few.

Then there are the major differences of opinion between developed and developing countries over issues like who cuts emissions most, and how much rich nations will pay the poorer ones for adapting to climate change (Reparations by any other name). It's possible that the developing nations will veto any deal they see as unfair or doesn't help them out enough.

But.....assuming they do get through all that AND there's a strong deal at the end of it, will it actually hold together?

As I see it, there are a number of challenges to overcome:

• The final deal is unlikely to be legally binding. So what's to stop countries not bothering, or not doing enough? Only national pride (i.e. Honouring an agreement) and that's only good until the party in opposition when the government signed the agreement, get into power e.g. Look at the Kyoto agreement: Bill Clinton's signature had barely dried before his successor, George W. Bush, tore it up. Even if the agreement were legally binding, Canada have shown how much that's worth. They dropped out of Kyoto in the nick of time to avoid heavy fines because their emissions were actually increasing.
• The U.S. Republican party are almost certain to tear down anything and everything that has even the faintest whiff of 'green' about it the next time they get in power. That includes any Climate Deal, the Environmental Protection Agency (Obama's only tool for making cuts at the moment), and the Clean Power Plan. They are idealogically opposed to emissions cuts regardless of any economic, environmental, or social benefits. If the Republicans do back out of the agreement, then it is likely the whole deal will unravel.
• What happens the next time a worldwide recession happens? Will countries axe funding for emissions cuts? Seems likely doesn't it?

Notice the common link in all those challenges? Politicans. Signed deals, like promises, mean nothing to them.

So, what I'm hoping for is that a strong climate deal inspires so many millions of ordinary people around the World, that the politicians don't dare renege on it. After all, the deal will be nothing less than a rallying call for everybody on the planet, not just governments, to unite against the common threat of climate change.

We can all be part of the solution.