We currently consume around 4 billion tonnes of coal, and 3000 billion cubic metres of natural gas annually, and 86 million barrels of oil per day. The result is around 30 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions per year.
Furthermore, demand for all 3 is predicted to increase by around 2% per year until 2030. So, in the absence of a worldwide climate change agreement, carbon emissions are set to increase by about 40% over the next 2 decades.
Of course, all this assumes supply continues to meet demand. And, in the case of oil and gas, this is by no means certain. If demand for oil did outstrip supply, it would be disastrous for the world economy because we are completely dependant on a cheap, plentiful supply.
Then there's the matter of energy security. Countries need to protect themselves from sudden price hikes caused by natural disaster (e.g. Hurrican Katrina), political instability (e.g. in South America, Middle-East or Russia), and profiteering from the likes of OPEC.
Finally, there's the looming problem of climate change. The world is getting warmer (See here) and, whether you believe we're the cause or not, adding these vast quatities of known greenhouse gases to atmosphere can't be helping matters.
So, for all these reasons, we need to urgently increase our efforts to find replacements and get them scaled up in time to meet those challenges.
We also need to stop subsidising oil and coal, and improve energy efficiency.
The ultimate aim is for the demand curve for fossil fuels to first level off then fall steadily to more acceptable levels. The sooner we can do that, the better.
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